Publications

Paramilitarism: The threat is still alive

This document review What are BACRIM?, How the BACRIM act in regions and cities of Colombia? The response of the government is very weak, about as Waht it would take to eradicate these bands "neoparamilitary" which for more than four years are the source main of violence.

Challenges after the death of a drug lord

The death of a drug lord in an organization, generates division and conflict within. The death of nickname: Cuchillo, is a blow to the structure neoparamilitary of the east of the country

Are union members benefited?

The agreement on the Action Plan Colombia and the U.S. to advance in the approbation of the FTA between the two countries is a great advance for continuing with one of the goals of the last two presidents of the country. Opinion column. [Document in spanish]

The trickery of perception

At the main cities, there is a slight decrease in violent crime records however the perception and fear are high. Opinion column.

Policies against evidence

The local leaders must promote the idea of the effectiveness of the suspensions to the size and holdings of firearms. Opinion column. [Document in english]

Delayed response?

The national government might decide to implement measures aimed at reducing the levels of violence in Cali is a belated recognition of the scale of violence. Opinion column. [Document in english]

Change in the U

Changes in the Ministry of Defense and cupola are not a cosmetic change or apolitical. Opinion column. [Document in english]

The case of Las Pavas: an opportunity to rectify and protect

With official data, two researchers show that in this town itself was displaced and that the prosecution appears to have been wrong in talking of "false victims".

Facing the ELN: Undoing the enemy?

A recent investigation by CERAC raises new and creative options that leverage the current political situation.

Electoral violence: multiform, and multiple causes transformed

In October the local elections are seriously threatened, not only by the risk of fraud, but specially for the murder of candidates for mayor and council.

After the death of Cano: regionalized processes of peace building

An original and incisive thesis: The concentration of power caused the death of Cano, but the FARC have long been federalized, desvertebradas and-as evidenced by the circumstances of this death-very weak. [Document in spanish]

The Civic Committee of south Bolivar. An experience of connivance and peace in the midst of conflict

Everyone is aware that in our country's history and the memory of its people have been marked by violence.

Paradoxes of "military achievement"

End the interlocutor whose leadership could lead to a difficult peace process does not seem so unreasonable and so hopeful.

The hour of political

The permanent reduction of violence and ending the conflict can only be achieved through the renunciation of violent political action. Until this no happens, the terrorist attacks marked the passing of our days. Opinion column. [Document in spanish]

Colombia 2025: a review from speech analysis

During history, the process of globalization has enabled the interconnection of different cultures, it's creating a new space for interaction between people.

Ciudad de Dios: An example for Mexico?

While it has become common to compare the Mexican drug war with the Colombian experience, it would be worth taking a look at what is happening in Rio de Janeiro. [Document in spanish]

Do Bans on Carrying Firearms Work for Violence Reduction? Evidence from a Department-level Ban in Colombia

This paper aims to fill a gap in the assessment of armed violence reduction programming by evaluating the impact of a ban on gun-carrying licenses in Colombia. Exploiting regional and temporal variations, and controlling by enforcement levels we found a large and significant violence reduction impact, both in terms of firearm homicides and firearms-related intentional injuries. These positive effects seem to diminish as time passes by and rely on continuous and significant enforcement of the restriction. This gun control intervention operates by extending law enforcement to previously uncontrolled territories and periods, thus increasing gun availability costs for violent criminals.

Rethinking the Colombian Conflict

The Colombian Conflict Where is it Heading?

From old wars to new wars and global terrorism

From old wars to new wars and global terrorism

Security situation in zones of Bogotá D.C. - 2005

Human rights conditions on foreign aid can backfire

Human rights conditions on foreign aid can backfire

Major developments in the Colombian conflict

Article published in Reflections on Human Security and Armed Violence

Colombia’s Chimera: Reflections on Human Security and Armed Violence

Colombia’s Chimera: Reflections on Human Security and Armed Violence

Kate Moss should support reparations for Colombia’s victims

Kate Moss should support reparations for Colombia’s victims

Aproximación a la situación de violencia e inseguridad en Bogotá D.C.

This paper has a basic approach to the situation of violence against people in the city of Bogota, Capital District. The research focuses on the sources of human insecurity that affect people in the city, and so adopts an approach that favors protecting them against risks that affect their physical integrity.

Briefing on the colombian conflict

The Colombian conflict can be roughly characterized as a three-sided one involving left-wing guerrillas, government forces and illegal right-wing paramilitaries.

The Colombian conflict: Uribe’s first 17 months

The Colombian conflict: Uribe’s first 17 months

Civilian casualties in the Colombian conflict: A new approach to human security

Civilian casualties in the Colombian conflict: A new approach to human security

The severity of the Colombian conflict: Cross-country datasets versus new micro data

The severity of the Colombian conflict: Cross-country datasets versus new micro data

Foreign aid designed to diminish terrorist atrocities can increase them

Foreign aid designed to diminish terrorist atrocities can increase them

Colombian conflict dynamics, 1988-2003

Colombian conflict dynamics, 1988-2003 [Document in spanish]

A surprising and inconvenient amnesty

The gun violence is the main problem of development. In fact, it is the leading cause of death, while globally (according to WHO) is cardiovascular disease. [Document in spanish]

Between 55 and 96 billion dollars would be needed to compensate the victims

Between 55 and 96 billion dollars would be needed to compensate the victims [Document in spanish]

A year of de-escalation: the conflict has almost stopped but refuses to disappear

Thanks to the high degree of compliance with the bilateral agreement on de-escalation that has been in force for a year, the armed conflict between the FARC and the Colombian state has fallen to its lowest levels in 52 years, in number of victims, fighters dead and wounded and violent actions.

The good and bad about the agreement on the withdrawal of minors from camps of the FARC.

Although it has some positive key points, the agreement signed last may, has important flaws. Also, the agreement left some questions that have to be resolved to ensure the process success. (Article in spanish.)

Political violence in Colombia: growing and increasingly selective

La violencia de carácter político que no se explica directamente por el conflicto armado interno se deterioró de forma grave en 2015. (Article in spanish)

Colombia’s Marcha Patriótica: a politics of amnesia or apocalypse?

Though it was established less than two years ago, the Marcha Patriótica (MP), a Colombian left-wing political movement, is already on the brink of collapse. Or extermination, depending on whom you ask. From April 2012, when it was founded, through 4 January of this year, 29 of its leaders and most active members have been assassinated or forcibly “disappeared”— all but two of them in 2013 alone.

A gesture of peace (article in spanish)

El comunicado de las Farc en torno al hecho de Pradera es histórico y marca un punto de quiebre para esta organización, establece principios de regularización para la conducción de sus operaciones en el marco del conflicto armado interno e impulsa las negociaciones al reconocer por primera vez la responsabilidad por sus acciones de tipo terrorista.

Assessing the merits of an imperfect peace: The FARC’s unilateral ceasefire in 2013-14

Using a variety of sources, CERAC has been closely monitoring the FARC’s ceasefire that began on December 15th and ended this past Wednesday. Though by and large upheld, it was far from perfect.

Admittedly, violence related to the conflict did take a precipitous drop: during the 30-day truce, the FARC was reported as responsible for only two deaths. Yet that did not prevent them from taking part in numerous armed activities – slightly more, in fact, than the same period on the previous year. Compared with the monthly average of FARC’s armed activities over the previous three years, the ceasefire represents a 65% decrease in activity – a similar reduction to the previous ceasefire.

Yet the decrease in activity was also followed by a diversification of tactics. Rather than target military objectives or urban conglomerations – typical strategies of the FARC that saw deep reductions – the guerrilla group increased the number of threats it made and continued to exacerbate displacement in rural communities.

La tregua unilateral de las FARC en 2013-2014: cumplimiento incompleto, menos violencia

Using a variety of sources, CERAC has been closely monitoring the FARC’s ceasefire that began on December 15th and ended this past Wednesday. Though by and large upheld, it was far from perfect.

Admittedly, violence related to the conflict did take a precipitous drop: during the 30-day truce, the FARC was reported as responsible for only two deaths. Yet that did not prevent them from taking part in numerous armed activities – slightly more, in fact, than the same period on the previous year. Compared with the monthly average of FARC’s armed activities over the previous three years, the ceasefire represents a 65% decrease in activity – a similar reduction to the previous ceasefire.

Yet the decrease in activity was also followed by a diversification of tactics. Rather than target military objectives or urban conglomerations – typical strategies of the FARC that saw deep reductions – the guerrilla group increased the number of threats it made and continued to exacerbate displacement in rural communities.

Venezuela: una bomba de tiempo

[article in spanish] The militarization of security is a potential risk to Venezuelans: violence can escalate because of the tensions.

Report: Urban violence and humanitarian action in Medellin

Colombia has long experienced acute forms of political violence in and at the periphery of its major cities. Humanitarian agencies have also for decades protected civilians in order to minimize suffering within armed conflicts. Yet in recent years, humanitarian organizations have started to engage in settings that are neither war nor peace. These environments feature complex forms of politically- and economically-motivated violence. The city of Medellin (Colombia), in particular, is the paradigmatic example of such an environment where different types of violence come together in complex ways.

Reelection of Democratic Security?

A security policy for the people not be reduced to a war plan. Opinion column. [Document in spanish]

Fifteen years of peace is unacceptable

The high commissioner for peace said it would take 15 years to make peace with the current security policy. Opinion column. [Document in spanish]

Criminals or enemy?

The state must address the various types of neoparamilitarismo with different strategies. Opinion column.

Galan's death and other shameful legacies of war

The void left by Galán is crucial to emerging elites, with one foot in the illegality and another on legality, rule today. Opinion column.

Security vs education

Although better defense capability and a greater ability to provide security are preconditions for overcoming violence in the country, these are not sufficient. [Document in spanish]

The stimuli of the war

The relationship between Colombia and Venezuela is so degraded and its reconstruction is becoming less feasible. Opinion column. [Document in spanish]

Barras de fútbol, juventud y conflictos: mapeo en la localidad de Kennedy (Bogotá)

En este trabajo se aborda el análisis del conflicto y el conflicto violento entre las barras de fútbol en la localidad de Kennedy desde una perspectiva de la construcción de identidades y la influencia de los grupos de pares, ejercicio que permitió concluir que el conflicto entre las barras de fútbol, y en especial la agresividad y violencia asociado a él, está fuertemente relacionado con el hecho que los jóvenes barristas tienden a construir identidades de carácter unidimensional y fundamentalista. Así, la diversificación de los referentes de identidad de los jóvenes barristas puede contribuir a la disminución de su agresividad y propensión a la violencia, aspecto que debe ser tenido en cuenta en cualquier estrategia de intervención.

Demobilization of the AUC: Is there major human security ?

Demobilization of the AUC: Is there major human security ? [Document in spanish]

An approach to the dynamics of the interest rates of short-term in Colombia through multivariate GARCH models

An approach to the dynamics of the interest rates of short-term in Colombia through multivariate GARCH models. [Document in spansih]

The paramilitary demobilization and disarmament in Colombia: Success provisional and silent

The paramilitary demobilization and disarmament in Colombia: Success provisional and silent

It has widened the gap between the regions of Colombia? A review of the literature on economic convergence

It has widened the gap between the regions of Colombia? A review of the literature on economic convergence

Economic analysis of internal conflicts

Economic analysis of internal conflicts [Document in spanish]

How to present data on violence? A Basic Guide

How to present data on violence? A Basic Guide. [Document in spanish]